Portugalete vs Irun
K 1.2 contracts
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2
Portugalete vs Irun
K 1.2 contracts
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Portugalete advances at 46%.
Kalshi
- Portugalete advances46%
- Irun advances41.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 1.2 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
POR vs UDI (Nov 4) If X advance past Y vs Irun soccer tie in the 1St Round of the Copa del Rey, then the market resolves to Yes. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi This market will close and expire after a winner is declared.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T18:00:05.955Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event page for Portugalete vs Irun lists two markets, both tied to the same first-round Copa del Rey match on October 28. The rule for the event reads: "If X advance past Y vs Irun soccer tie in the 1St Round of the Copa del Rey, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] The two markets are "Portugalete To Advance" and "Irun To Advance," so each asks whether one specific side advances. [1]
The provider describes the market as closing and expiring "after a winner is declared." [1] The listed end time in the provider data is shown as "not supplied" in the excerpt, even though a market record carries an end date of October 30, 2026 at 18:00 UTC. [1] Readers should treat that end date as a provider field, not as confirmation of when the tie will be decided or when the market will settle.
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices were observed at 18:00:05 UTC on October 24, 2026, and retrieved at 19:26:43 UTC the same day. [1] They describe the market at those times only and should not be read as live prices now.
At the observation time, the "Portugalete To Advance" Yes price was 0.42, with No at 0.58. [1] The "Irun To Advance" Yes price was 0.415, with No at 0.585. [1] These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The gap between the two Yes prices is small in this snapshot, but the two contracts are worded differently, so they should be compared with care rather than combined into a single figure.
The sample includes both markets from this one provider event, with no partial sampling noted. [1] The saved data does not include volume, so it cannot show how much trading occurred or how many participants held positions.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why either price is where it is, and nothing here indicates current news, team changes, or any other factor. The excerpt supplies no information on the result of the match, and it does not establish how the market will settle beyond the quoted rule. [1]
The sample warning states that the saved markets do not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome. [1] This snapshot is therefore limited to the two markets captured for this event. Readers should check the provider page directly for current prices, status, and any updated end time before drawing conclusions.
References
- Kalshi: Portugalete vs Irun. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T18:00:05.955Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi event titled Portugalete vs Irun, which concerns a first-round Copa del Rey soccer tie listed for October 28. The provider's contract rule says that if one side advances past the other in the tie, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The event has two saved markets: one asking whether Portugalete will advance and one asking whether Irun will advance [1]. The provider notes that the market closes and expires after a winner is declared [1]. The provider's own event page shows the market as active, and the saved record lists no separate end time in the event status, though the market records carry an end date of October 30, 2026 at 18:00 UTC. That date is a field in the saved market data and should not be read as the date the match is played or the moment the result is confirmed. The provider also states that references to FIFA and the FIFA World Cup in its materials are descriptive only and do not indicate an affiliation with Kalshi [1]. Those references do not bear on the Copa del Rey tie itself. The two contracts are mirror images of the same advancement question. Each market's Yes price reflects a single trading snapshot, not an executable quote or a verified probability of either team advancing.
Historical Context
Association football has been part of Basque Country culture since the end of the 19th century [3]. As of 2025, four Basque teams played in La Liga, the top division of the Spanish football system: Athletic Bilbao, Real Sociedad, CA Osasuna and Deportivo Alavés [3]. The term Basque derbies refers to local matches between football teams based in the Basque Country, and it can also describe the wider rivalry between clubs and fans [2]. The supplied background sources do not describe Portugalete or Irun, their divisions, or their recent results, so this history provides regional context only.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single outcome: whether a named side advances from this Copa del Rey tie. Because the rule resolves to Yes when the named team advances past its opponent [1], the two markets capture the same underlying question from opposite sides. The Yes price in each market is a trading snapshot that shows where buyers and sellers were at one observation time. It is not a probability that has been checked against outcomes, and it does not show how many people traded or how deep the market is.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Portugalete To Advance contract resolve on?
The rule states that if Portugalete advances past Irun in the first-round Copa del Rey tie, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The market closes and expires after a winner is declared [1].
Are the two prices a reliable forecast of who will advance?
No. The saved prices are snapshots from one observation time, and they are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The two Yes prices were 0.42 for Portugalete and 0.415 for Irun in that snapshot, which is a market observation rather than a forecast [1].
Why are there two markets for one tie?
The event saves one market for each side. The rule for each market resolves to Yes if that named side advances past the other [1], so the two markets address the same match from each team's perspective.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
