Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET
PM $0
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket event covers the window in its title, "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET" [1]. The source says the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range." Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream. The source states that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream," not "any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a spot chart or another venue should expect that the measurement method may differ.
The listed end time is 2026-10-16T12:45:00.000Z [1]. This is the listed close time, not a confirmed resolution time.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:04:29.553Z [1]. The provider status was active at retrieval [1]. These figures describe that earlier observation and should not be read as current trading.
The saved prices are 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" [1]. These are the two outcomes of one binary contract, so the quoted prices sum to 1.00, with a gap of 0.010. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The coverage record lists one market from one platform, with 1 of 1 markets included and partialSample set to false [1]. Because the sample covers only this saved event, no comparison with other platforms or contracts is possible from this record. The record does not include volume, so it says nothing about liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices were where they were at observation. It does not provide trader counts, later prices, or the current status of the market. It also does not show whether the window has resolved or how the TWAP compared with the starting price. Readers should check the provider page for the latest status and outcome.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCAI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
