New Hampshire Senate District 22 winner? (2028)
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New Hampshire Senate District 22 winner? (2028)
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Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Republican party at 94%.
Kalshi
- Republican party94%
- Democratic party5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Senate District 22 If X wins the 2028 general election for New Hampshire Senate District 22, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a designated media source declares the winner. Party affiliation is determined by the party label listed for the candidate on the official ballot, regardless of subsequent changes. X candidate listed with more than one party's label is affiliated only with the first party listed, and a candidate listed with a state affiliate of a national party is affiliated with that national party. Independent and unaffiliated candidates, and write-in candidates not listed on the official ballot, are affiliated with no party. X candidate declared elected without a vote is affiliated with the party under which the candidate qualified. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-05T09:00:05.847Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved Kalshi event asks who will win the 2028 general election for New Hampshire Senate District 22. The rules state that "If X wins the 2028 general election for New Hampshire Senate District 22, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. The two markets in this snapshot are separate contracts. One asks whether the Republican Party wins the seat, and the other asks whether the Democratic Party does [1].
The party rules are specific. Affiliation "is determined by the party label listed for the candidate on the official ballot, regardless of subsequent changes" [1]. Independent and unaffiliated candidates "are affiliated with no party" [1]. A candidate listed under more than one party is affiliated only with the first party listed [1]. A reader comparing these contracts with other platforms should check these wording differences before treating the questions as equivalent.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-11-05T09:00:05Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-11-05T10:35:49Z [1]. These are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The Republican contract shows Yes at 0.53 and No at 0.47. The Democratic contract shows Yes at 0.045 and No at 0.955 [1]. Because the two contracts ask different questions, their Yes prices should be read separately. Adding or comparing them does not produce a meaningful combined estimate.
The market records list an end date of 2029-11-07T15:00:00.000Z for both contracts [1]. The source excerpt, however, says the listed end time is "not supplied" and that the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1]. The end date is therefore a listed close time in the record, not an announced event date or a confirmed resolution date.
The sample includes 2 of 2 saved markets for this event, and the coverage record marks it as not partial [1]. The sample warning still states that the providers may not list every possible real-world outcome [1]. The evidence does not show volume, trader counts, or liquidity, so no conclusions about depth are possible.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why either price is where it is, and it does not describe any recent news or related events. It also contains no information about historical accuracy of these markets. The contract rules do not state an announced election date. Readers should not assume that the saved snapshot reflects current prices after its retrieval time.
References
- Kalshi: New Hampshire Senate District 22 winner? (2028). Provider data observed 2026-11-05T09:00:05.847Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 5, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This entry covers a Kalshi event titled "New Hampshire Senate District 22 winner? (2028)" [1]. The event concerns the 2028 general election for New Hampshire Senate District 22, a state legislative district. The provider's rule is that if a named candidate wins that election, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The saved event includes two party-based contracts, one asking whether the Republican Party wins the election and one asking the same about the Democratic Party [1]. Each contract is a separate yes or no question, so the two should be read on their own terms. Party status is set by a specific rule rather than by a candidate's later statements. The provider says a candidate's party is the party label listed for them on the official ballot, and that later changes do not alter it [1]. If a candidate appears with more than one party label, only the first listed party counts. A candidate listed with a state affiliate of a national party is treated as belonging to that national party. Independent candidates, unaffiliated candidates, and unlisted write-in candidates are treated as having no party. A candidate declared elected without a vote is affiliated with the party under which they qualified [1]. The contract also has an early determination feature. The event is eligible for accelerated determination after a designated media source declares the winner, and the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The provider's listed end time is not supplied in the source [1]. The saved market data carries a close date field of November 7, 2029, but that is a provider field, not a confirmed event date, and it should not be read as the date the race will be decided. Wikipedia pages on the 2028 federal Senate and presidential elections were also retrieved. They describe the broader federal election cycle, not the history of this state district, and they do not address this contest [2][3].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a candidate from a specified party wins the 2028 general election for New Hampshire Senate District 22 [1]. Because party affiliation is fixed by the ballot label rules described by the provider, the question is tied to a formal ballot status rather than to informal political identity [1]. The Republican and Democratic contracts ask about different parties in the same race, so each carries its own probability-style price that reflects trading activity on that single question. Prices in this event are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Traders should not assume that the two party contracts must mirror each other, and different prices across contracts do not by themselves create an arbitrage opportunity.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-05 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes a contract resolve to Yes?
The rule states that if the named candidate wins the 2028 general election for New Hampshire Senate District 22, the market resolves to Yes [1].
How is a candidate's party decided for these contracts?
Party affiliation follows the party label on the official ballot, and later changes do not alter it. A candidate with multiple labels is affiliated only with the first party listed. Independent, unaffiliated, and unlisted write-in candidates have no party. A candidate declared elected without a vote is affiliated with the party under which they qualified [1].
Could this event close before the 2028 election?
Yes. The event is eligible for accelerated determination after a designated media source declares the winner, and it will close and expire early if the event occurs [1].
Do the prices show verified probabilities?
No. The prices are snapshots from a specific observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the saved volume figures do not indicate liquidity or the number of traders.
Does the sample include every possible outcome?
The saved event includes all of its two saved markets. That does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for this race, so an omitted outcome should not be assumed to have any particular price.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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