Solana Up or Down - October 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-29T12:00:06.991Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract on whether Solana will go up or down over a short window. It resolves to "Up" if "the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The title's window is 2:15AM to 2:20AM ET on October 30 [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Any comparison with prices on other venues or in other contracts should account for this specific source. The listed end time is 2026-10-30T06:20:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation was taken at 2026-10-29T12:00:06.991Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-29T12:31:18.223Z [1]. The provider status was "active" at retrieval [1]. This is a record of that moment, not a live quote.
The saved prices are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The sample contains one market, so there is no other contract on this event to compare against, and no cross-platform comparison is possible from this evidence.
The evidence does not include volume, order book depth, or trader counts, so it cannot show how liquid the contract was or how many participants were involved.
What remains uncertain
The contract had not resolved at the time of the snapshot, and the evidence does not show an outcome. The stated end time is a listed close, not a confirmed result.
The sample covers all saved markets for this event, and the coverage record reports one market with no partial sample [1]. The provider's own sample note states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because this is a binary Up or Down contract with two saved outcomes, the prices shown should be read only as the recorded values for those two outcomes at that time.
The evidence does not explain why prices were where they were, and it contains no reporting on Solana or market conditions around the observation time.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T12:00:06.991Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 29, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term crypto contract on Polymarket that asks whether Solana's price will be up or down over a five-minute window on October 30, 2026, from 2:15 AM to 2:20 AM Eastern Time [1]. The contract is titled "Solana Up or Down - October 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET" and is categorized under Crypto [1]. At the time the record was observed, the provider listed its status as active, with a listed end time of 2026-10-30T06:20:00.000Z [1]. The contract does not settle on whichever exchange price a trader happens to see. The rules say it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Solana over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The price used is generated by Chainlink, and the rules specify the SOL/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source [1]. The rules also state that the market concerns the Chainlink TWAP data stream for SOL/USD and not any other sources or spot markets [1]. The saved listing shows two outcomes, Up and Down [1]. Because the contract is short and built on an average price, the outcome depends on how the average over the window compares with the starting price rather than on where the price is at the final moment [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the time-weighted average price of SOL/USD, as reported in the Chainlink TWAP data stream, over the stated five-minute window is at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because it uses an average rather than a single print, a brief spike or drop at the start or end of the window may affect the result differently than it would under a point-in-time rule [1]. The rules restrict the measure to that one Chainlink data stream, so other exchanges or spot markets are not part of the resolution [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-29 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether the contract resolves Up or Down?
It resolves Up if the time-weighted average price over the window in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window, and Down otherwise [1].
Which price data does the contract use?
The rules specify the SOL/USD TWAP data stream generated by Chainlink, and state that other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
What time window does this contract cover?
The title sets the window as October 30, 2:15 AM to 2:20 AM ET, and the listed end time in the saved record is 2026-10-30T06:20:00.000Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.