TN-06 House Election Winner
PM $22.6K
1
2
TN-06 House Election Winner
PM $22.6K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Johnny Garrett (R) at 95%.
Polymarket
- Johnny Garrett (R)95%
- Mike Croley (D)4.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $22.6K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied event, TN-06 House Election Winner, resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections [1]. The source states that the midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. A candidate's party is determined by "their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources" [1]. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican party is assigned to the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus, measured at that same time [1].
Resolution is based on "a consensus of credible reporting." If there is ambiguity, it uses official results reported by the Federal Election Commission [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is a close time listed in the contract data. It does not mean the race has been called or that a result has been announced.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T22:04:03.146Z [1]. These values describe that observation only and are not live quotes. The Republican Party contract shows Yes at 0.955 and No at 0.045. The Democratic Party contract shows Yes at 0.045 and No at 0.955 [1]. The two contracts appear to be opposite sides of the same seat, so their quoted values mirror each other in this snapshot. These prices are not verified probabilities, and the gap between contracts does not indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
Both markets share the same listed end time. The coverage record reports two of two saved markets included, with no partial sample [1]. The evidence does not report volume, so this snapshot says nothing about liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices took their observed values, and it contains no news or trader views. It does not report any results, candidate names, or a statement about whether the race has been called. The sample warning states that inclusion of all saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Readers should check the provider page and the official resolution criteria before relying on any figure.
References
- Polymarket: TN-06 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This market, listed as TN-06 House Election Winner, asks which party will win the U.S. House seat for Tennessee's 6th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections [1]. The provider states that the midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. The contract resolves to the party of the candidate who wins that seat, not to the name of an individual candidate [1]. The provider's rules explain how a party is assigned. A candidate's party is based on their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources [1]. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to the Democratic or Republican party is assigned to one of those parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at that same time [1]. The rules also set out how the outcome is determined. The market resolves based on the election result as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting [1]. If there is ambiguity, it resolves based solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1]. The provider lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The saved event contains two binary contracts, one asking whether the Republican Party will win the seat and one asking whether the Democratic Party will win it [1]. The contracts are linked, so each one describes the same underlying outcome from the opposite side.
Historical Context
The supplied background sources describe earlier U.S. House elections rather than the Tennessee 6th district. One source states that the 1888 House elections were held for the most part on November 6, 1888, alongside the presidential election of Benjamin Harrison, with seats representing 38 states [2]. Another states that the 1906 House elections were held for the most part on November 6, 1906, during the second term of President Theodore Roosevelt, for 386 seats across 45 states [3]. These sources show that House elections are held on a set national date, but they do not describe the history of TN-06 or the 2026 race.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which party wins one specific House seat in the 2026 midterm elections [1]. Because the rules define the winner by party rather than by candidate, the market concerns the partisan outcome of the seat [1]. The rules also address cases where a candidate's party is not listed on the ballot or where the result is unclear, which can affect how the contract is settled [1]. Traders reading the prices should note that the contract's wording, its party assignment rules, and its resolution sources all determine the outcome, not the general political environment [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the TN-06 House Election Winner market resolve on?
It resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections [1].
How is a candidate's party determined?
The rules use the candidate's ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party affiliation at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources [1]. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation is assigned to a party based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at that time [1].
What sources decide the outcome?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting [1]. If there is ambiguity, it resolves solely on official results from the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1].
When is the election and when does the market end?
The provider states that the midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Kentucky 06 House General Election: voter turnout
K 389.23 contractsIllinois 06 House General Election: voter turnout
K 0 contractsAlabama 06 House General Election: voter turnout
K 0 contractsLouisiana 06 House General Election: voter turnout
K 4.0K contracts
TN-03 House election: Chuck Fleischmann vote percent
K 2.8K contractsTN-02 House election: Tim Burchett vote percent
K 2.2K contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
