Tampa Bay vs Cleveland: Total Bases
K 38.4K contracts
1
23
Tampa Bay vs Cleveland: Total Bases
K 38.4K contracts
1
23
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 38.4K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
23
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
About This Event
TB vs CLE (Oct 16) If Yandy Díaz records X total bases in the Tampa Bay vs Cleveland professional baseball game originally scheduled for Oct 16, 2026 at 6:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Player Participation & Settlement Criteria If Yandy Díaz is scratched or not included in the starting lineup, the market will resolve to the fair market price. If Yandy Díaz starts the game but does not record a plate appearance, the market will resolve to the fair market price. If Yandy Díaz is not in the starting lineup but later enters the game, the market will resolve to the fair market price, pinch hit at bats will not count towards the market. If Yandy Díaz is in the starting lineup and records at least one plate appearance the market will settle based on total bases recorded. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after the event occurs.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T03:00:06.448Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event covers the Tampa Bay vs Cleveland game originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 6:00 PM EDT [1]. Each player contract asks whether a named player records a stated number of total bases in that game. If the player "records at least one plate appearance the market will settle based on total bases recorded" [1]. If the player is scratched, is not in the starting lineup, or starts without a plate appearance, the market "will resolve to the fair market price" [1]. Pinch hit at bats do not count if a player enters later [1].
The rules say the market "will close and expire after the event occurs" [1]. The event page lists its end time as "not supplied" [1], but the individual market records show an end date of October 19, 2026 at 22:00 UTC [1]. That date is a provider data field, not an announced settlement date, and the two sources do not explain each other.
Reading the snapshot
The markets were observed at 2026-10-17 03:00:06 UTC and the source was retrieved at 03:06:45 UTC [1]. These are past readings, not live prices.
Within this snapshot, the Yes prices for "2+ total bases" range from 0.29 (Brayan Rocchio) to 0.395 (Yandy Díaz) [1]. For "3+ total bases," the listed Yes prices run from 0.23 (José Ramírez) to 0.295 (Jonathan Aranda) [1]. Jonathan Aranda's "4+ total bases" contract is listed at 0.21 and José Ramírez's at 0.20 [1].
These are quoted snapshots, not executable prices or verified probabilities. Each threshold and player is a separate contract with its own rules, so the Yes prices should not be averaged or summed, and differences between contracts are not an arbitrage signal. The snapshot does not explain why any price is where it is.
The sample is partial. Twelve of 23 markets from this provider event are included [1]. The selection favors the highest Yes prices, but the omitted 11 markets are not shown, so this sample cannot be read as the full field, and no conclusion about their prices is supported.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the game's lineups, plate appearances, total bases, or whether the game was played. It does not show how the markets will settle. The listed end times conflict with the rule that the market closes after the event, and the supplied data does not resolve that. Volume and trader counts are not included, so they cannot indicate liquidity or consensus.
References
- Kalshi: Tampa Bay vs Cleveland: Total Bases. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T03:00:06.448Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a player prop tied to a Major League Baseball game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians, listed on Kalshi under the event title "Tampa Bay vs Cleveland: Total Bases" [1]. The rules describe a game originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 6:00 PM EDT [1]. Each market asks whether a named player will record a set number of total bases in that game. For example, one listed contract asks whether Yandy Díaz will record 2 or more total bases, and another asks whether he will record 3 or more [1]. The settlement rules depend on lineup status. If the named player is scratched or is not in the starting lineup, the provider says the market will resolve to the "fair market price" [1]. If the player starts but does not record a plate appearance, the market also resolves to the fair market price [1]. A player who is not in the starting lineup but later enters the game is treated the same way, and pinch hit at bats do not count toward the market [1]. Only when the player starts and records at least one plate appearance does the market settle based on total bases recorded [1]. The provider also states that the market will close and expire after the event occurs [1]. The market data lists an end date of October 19, 2026 at 22:00 UTC for each contract, but the provider's listed end time for the event is not supplied [1]. The rules refer to the game as originally scheduled, so the contract should be read in terms of the rules rather than any assumed game time. The supplied material does not show whether the game was played as scheduled, postponed, or completed, or how any contract settled. The teams involved are the Tampa Bay Rays, described as a franchise in the American League East Division [2], and the Cleveland Guardians, described as a member club of the American League Central Division [3].
Historical Context
The Cleveland Guardians have been a Major League franchise since 1901, and the source reports that the team has won 14 Central Division titles, six American League pennants, and two World Series championships [3]. The same source notes that the team's World Series drought, dating to 1948, is the longest active among the 30 current Major League teams [3]. The Tampa Bay Rays' 2025 season was described by its source as the 28th season of the franchise [2]. These facts are historical background only and do not describe the game or contract in this snapshot.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single player's total bases in one game, with thresholds such as 2+ or 3+ [1]. Its value depends on the provider's settlement rules, which send the market to the fair market price in several lineup or participation cases and count only plate appearances that occur when the player starts [1]. Because the outcome depends on one player's performance in one game, readers should check the rules for each contract, including how pinch hit at bats and late entries are treated [1]. The snapshot prices are listed as Yes and No values for each contract. For example, Yandy Díaz's 2+ total bases Yes price was 0.395 and his 3+ Yes price was 0.255 in the sample [1]. These figures are snapshots taken at the observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they do not reflect the current market. The sample includes 12 of 23 markets for this event, so it is a partial sample and does not represent the full field of contracts.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome require in this contract?
For the Yandy Díaz 2+ market, the rules say the market resolves to Yes if he records X total bases in the game, with X set by the threshold in each contract [1]. The provider's listed threshold for each market is shown in the market title, such as 2+ or 3+ total bases [1].
What happens if the player is scratched or does not bat?
If the player is scratched or not in the starting lineup, the market resolves to the fair market price [1]. If he starts but records no plate appearance, the market also resolves to the fair market price [1].
Do pinch hit at bats count toward the total?
No. If a player is not in the starting lineup but later enters the game, the rules state that pinch hit at bats will not count toward the market [1].
Does the listed price show the chance that an outcome will happen?
The prices are snapshots taken at a specific observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1]. They reflect the listed Yes and No prices at that time, so they should not be read as confirmed chances of an outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
