BNB Up or Down - October 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T18:00:06.173Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract on the BNB price in the window stated in its title, 9:15AM to 9:30AM ET on October 27. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over that range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the contract states it is "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-27T13:30:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, while the listed end time is in UTC, so readers comparing the two should convert them before relying on the window. The contract's end time is when it closes. It is not an announced event, and the evidence does not establish when or how the contract will be settled after that.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-26T18:00:06.173Z and retrieved at 2026-10-26T19:33:52.185Z [1]. Those are the times to use when interpreting the prices. The contract's status in the saved record is "active" [1]. The evidence does not show prices after the observation time, so this snapshot cannot tell you the current price.
At observation, the saved prices were 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" [1]. These are quoted snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence contains no order book, spread, or volume data for this market, so it does not show how easily either side could be traded.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows one total market, one included, and no partial sample [1]. This does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for this window, and the evidence does not explain why prices sit close to each other.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain what drove these prices, how many participants hold each position, or whether either side reflects a reliable forecast. It also contains no information on how the Chainlink TWAP will compare with the starting price, so the outcome cannot be inferred from the snapshot. Other BNB contracts on other platforms may use different windows, sources, or end times and should not be compared directly with this one.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T18:00:06.173Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-window price direction market on BNB against USD. It asks whether the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the window named in the title, 9:15 AM to 9:30 AM ET on October 27, will be at or above the price at the start of that window. The source states that the market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP is greater than or equal to the starting price, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-27T13:30:00Z [1]. The resolution basis is specific. The source says the market is about the price in the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and not about any other source or spot market [1]. A trader reading the contract should therefore focus on that data stream's TWAP rather than on a quoted exchange price at a given moment. The source also identifies the contract as coming from Polymarket and gives its provider status as active [1]. The saved sample for this event includes one market with two outcomes, "Up" and "Down" [1]. The observation was recorded on 2026-10-26 at 18:00 UTC, so the prices shown in the application reflect that snapshot and not live trading at the time of reading.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of BNB's price over a 15-minute window, but it does so through an average rather than a single price point. Because the resolution uses the TWAP of the window and compares it with the price at the start of the window, the outcome depends on how the price moved across the whole period [1]. The source makes clear that the named data stream is the only reference for settlement [1]. Anyone comparing this contract with a quote on another venue should keep in mind that the source explicitly excludes other sources and spot markets from resolution [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Up outcome require?
The Up outcome applies if the TWAP of BNB over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
What does the Down outcome require?
The Down outcome applies when the TWAP over the window is not greater than or equal to the starting price, which the source describes as the case where the market does not resolve to Up [1].
Which price data determines the result?
The source says the market is about the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream and not about any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does this contract end?
The listed end time in the source is 2026-10-27T13:30:00Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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