BNB Up or Down - October 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract, "BNB Up or Down - October 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET," in the Crypto category [1]. The rules say it will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The rules name the resolution source as the BNB/USD TWAP data stream and state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Readers should therefore compare this contract against other BNB contracts only after checking that each uses the same source, averaging method, and time window.
The listed end time is 2026-10-26T17:15:00Z [1]. This is a contract closing time, not an announced event or a confirmed resolution. The source does not show a resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-25T18:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-25T20:44:56Z [1]. It reports the "Up" outcome at 0.505 and the "Down" outcome at 0.495 [1]. These prices are a record of what the provider showed at observation time. They are not executable quotes, verified probabilities, or a view of the price now, since the provider status is recorded as active and the contract has not closed.
The sample covers one market from one provider event, with no partial sample flag [1]. Because there is no second platform or second contract in the evidence, no cross-platform comparison is possible here. The two prices are nearly equal, which in this snapshot means the provider showed close to even prices for the two outcomes. The data do not explain why the prices were at that level, and volume figures are not supplied, so nothing can be said about liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the BNB price at the start of the window, the TWAP during the window, or the final outcome. It does not establish how the prices have changed since the observation time. It also does not identify the number of traders behind the prices. Any reader comparing this contract to a differently worded BNB market, such as one using a different source or closing time, should treat the two as separate instruments.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term crypto price contract on Polymarket titled "BNB Up or Down - October 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET." It asks whether the price of BNB, measured against U.S. dollars, will finish a five-minute window higher or lower than it started. The contract's rules say it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. If the TWAP is below the starting price, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The measurement is a time-weighted average rather than a single trade price. That means the comparison uses an average of prices across the window, set against the starting price, rather than the price at the final moment. The rules also state that only the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream counts. Other sources and spot markets are not used to settle the contract [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-26T17:15:00Z, which corresponds to 1:15PM ET on October 26 [1]. That is the time the contract's window closes under its rules. It is not a statement about what has already happened, and the provider status recorded in the saved event is active [1]. The market sample used here contains a single outcome pair. The "Up" outcome was recorded at 0.505 and the "Down" outcome at 0.495 in a provider observation from 18:00 UTC on October 25, 2026 [1]. These figures are only a snapshot from that observation time. They are not executable quotes and should not be read as verified probabilities.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow question: whether BNB's Chainlink TWAP over a five-minute window ends at or above the price where that window began. Because the outcome depends on a specific data stream rather than on a general news source or any single exchange, the rules define exactly which number decides the result [1]. Anyone reading the prices should keep in mind that the contract is settled by that stream alone, and that the prices recorded here reflect one observation at one time rather than an ongoing trading picture [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the "Up" outcome mean for this contract?
The "Up" outcome resolves yes if the BNB/USD TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range [1].
What does the "Down" outcome mean?
The "Down" outcome applies when the TWAP over the window is below the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which data source decides the result?
The rules name the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and state that other sources and spot markets are not used [1].
When does the measurement window end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-26T17:15:00Z, which is 1:15PM ET on October 26 [1].
Do the prices show the chance that BNB goes up?
The recorded prices are a snapshot of market prices at one observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.