Name: When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
End: 2026-07-03T00:00:00.000Z

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When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair? | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $384.21

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $384.21

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 30 and June 5?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 30 and June 5?	Poly	19%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 6 and June 12?	Poly	17%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?	Poly	13%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 27 and July 3?	Poly	11%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair after July 3?	Poly	11%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 13 and June 19?	Poly	9%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 20 and June 26?	Poly	9%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29?	Poly	8%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair before May 15?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

19%

Top Probability

$384.21

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify. The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the co

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jul 3, 2026 (77 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify.

The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the co

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of P"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $436
* **Total Liquidity:** $19.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 3, 2026): Vol $121
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 30 and June 5?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 3, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 13 and June 19?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 27 and July 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair before May 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 3, 2026): Vol $81
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 3, 2026): Vol $73
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 6 and June 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 3, 2026): Vol $59
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 20 and June 26?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 3, 2026): Vol $41
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair after July 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 3, 2026): Vol $22
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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