Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract covers a single five-minute window in the title, "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET" [1]. The rules say it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T07:10:00.000Z [1]. That is a contract closing time from the provider, not an announced event. Other platforms or contracts may use different window wording, data sources, or closing times, so their prices are not directly comparable to this one.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-27T09:46:12.308Z [1]. The status was recorded as active [1]. These times describe when the data was captured, not the present market state.
The saved prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot quotes. They are not executable prices, and they are not verified probabilities. The saved record does not include volume, depth, or the number of traders, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold each side.
The sample covers one saved market from one provider event, and it is complete for that event: one of one markets was included, and the sample is not partial [1]. The provider's note that all saved markets are included does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1]. In this case the two outcomes are the full binary pair in the record.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the current price, whether these quotes are still available, or the actual result, which depends on the Chainlink TWAP calculation over the stated window. It also does not explain why the quotes stand where they do. A difference between this contract and a similar one on another platform should not be treated as an opportunity without checking window definitions, data sources, closing times, and execution conditions.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window Bitcoin contract from Polymarket titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET." The contract is a binary market with two outcomes, "Up" and "Down." According to the provider's rules, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The measurement source is specified narrowly. The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically its BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second window. The rules state that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink TWAP data stream for the BTC/USD pair, and not any other data source or spot market [1]. A reader should therefore treat the contract as a question about that specific data feed rather than about Bitcoin prices on exchanges in general. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T07:10:00Z, which corresponds to the 3:10 AM ET close named in the title [1]. That date is a contract closing time taken from the rules. It is not evidence that any event has occurred or that the market has been settled. The provider's status field reads "active" in the retrieved record [1], so the saved information describes an open contract at the time of retrieval. The market is a single listing on one platform, so the sample here consists of this one contract rather than a comparison across several related outcomes.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of a short-term Bitcoin price move as recorded by one specific Chainlink data feed over a five-minute window from 3:05 AM to 3:10 AM ET on October 28. The comparison is between the TWAP over that range and the price at the start of the range, so the result depends on the averaging method and the feed's definition rather than a single spot price [1]. Because the rules tie resolution to that stream, readers can use the contract to understand how short-window outcome markets define their measurement, which is separate from any view on where Bitcoin prices are heading.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which data source is used for resolution?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second window. The rules say other sources and spot markets are not used [1].
When does the contract close?
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T07:10:00Z, which matches the 3:10 AM ET end of the time range in the title [1]. This is the contract's closing time, not a record of how it settled.
Does a market price show the probability of an outcome?
The available evidence does not establish that. The saved price is a snapshot from the provider record and is not a verified probability or an executable quote [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.