Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Will the 2026 Fijian constitutional referendum pass?

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$0.00

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Will the 2026 Fijian constitutional referendum pass?

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1 market tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will the 2026 Fijian constitutional referendum pass?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 2026 Fijian constitutional referendum pass?	Kalshi	37%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

37%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

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About This Event

In 2026 If the 2026 Fijian constitutional referendum passes, then the market resolves to Yes. Under the Supreme Court of Fiji's 2025 advisory opinion, a constitutional amendment is approved at referendum by a simple majority of the votes cast, not by a share of registered voters. Only a referendum held in 2026 counts. If more than one question is put to voters, this market follows the question on approving the Constitution (Amendment) Bill 2026. This market may resolve early once a consensus o

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the 2026 Fijian constitutional referendum pass?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If the 2026 Fijian constitutional referendum passes, then the market resolves to Yes. Under the Supreme Court of Fiji's 2025 advisory opinion, a constitutional amendment is approved at referendum by a simple majority of the votes cast, not by a share of registered voters. Only a referendum held in 2026 counts. If more than one question is put to voters, this market follows the question on approving the Constitution (Amendment) Bill 2026.

This market may resolve early once a consensus o

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the 2026 Fijian constitutional referendum passes, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Under the Supreme Court of Fiji's 2025 advisory opinion, a constitutional amendment is approved at referendum by a simple majority of the votes cast, not by a share of registered voters. Only a ref"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 2026 Fijian constitutional referendum pass?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIElections