Tennessee's 9th District margin of victory
K 351.79 contracts
1
7
Tennessee's 9th District margin of victory
K 351.79 contracts
1
7
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 1, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Taylor, 1+ pts at 75.5%.
Kalshi
- Taylor, 1+ pts75.5%
- Taylor, 4+ pts59.5%
- Taylor, 7+ pts40.5%
- Taylor, 10+ pts23%
- Taylor, 13+ pts12.4%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 351.79 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
7
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Tennessee's 9th District If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Tennessee's 9th District by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast, for raw votes. This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T12:00:06.236Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether the Democratic Party wins Tennessee's 9th District U.S. House race in 2026 by a stated margin. The margin is the Democratic vote percentage minus the percentage for the candidate or party finishing immediately behind, or minus the first-place finisher if Democrats lose, and "No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin" [1]. The rules also say that "Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound" [1]. The saved markets are phrased as "at least" thresholds, such as "at least 1 percentage points" [1], so reading the exact boundary wording matters.
Close timing is unclear. The rules state that "This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published" [1]. The provider record lists "Listed end time: not supplied" [1], but each market carries an end date of 2027-11-03T15:00:00.000Z. That date is a listed close time in the saved data, not evidence of when results will be certified or announced.
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-28T12:00:06.236Z and retrieved at 2026-10-28T19:22:16.952Z [1]. These are the times of this record, not live prices, and the prices below may no longer match current quotes.
All 12 markets from this one Kalshi event are included, and the sample is not partial [1]. Within this event, the Yes prices shown were 0.134 for at least 1 point, 0.055 for at least 4 points, and 0.042 for at least 7 points. The remaining thresholds, from 37 to 61 points, each show a Yes price of 0.025 [1]. These prices are quoted snapshots, not executable offers, verified probabilities, or measures of how many traders hold a view.
Because only one platform appears here, no cross-platform comparison is supported. The volume field is not supplied in this record, so it cannot be used to judge liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The record does not explain why prices are where they are, and it does not show trader counts, news, or any forecasting track record. The source also does not say when the race will be decided or certified, so the listed end date should not be read as a result date. Readers comparing these thresholds should check the boundary rules and the early-closing clause before treating any two outcomes as equivalent.
References
- Kalshi: Tennessee's 9th District margin of victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T12:00:06.236Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract is a threshold market on the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Tennessee's 9th District. The contract resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins that election by at least the stated number of percentage points [1]. The underlying race is one of the nine Tennessee House contests scheduled for November 3, 2026 [3]. The margin is calculated from vote percentages. If the Democratic Party wins, the margin is the Democratic vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate or party that finishes immediately behind it. If the Democratic Party loses, the margin is negative and is measured against the candidate or party that finishes first. A tie for first place produces a margin of zero [1]. The rules say no rounding is applied, and each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound. A margin of exactly 6 percentage points therefore falls in the 6 to 7 point range rather than the 5 to 6 point range [1]. The rules also address uncontested races. If the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin is set at 100 percentage points, or at the total number of votes cast when the measure is raw votes [1]. The contract closes and expires early if certified election results are published [1]. The provider excerpt does not supply a listed end time, so the contract data should not be read as the date the election result becomes final. The saved markets in this event are threshold contracts at different margins, ranging from at least 1 percentage point to at least 61 percentage points [1]. Each threshold is a separate Yes or No contract. The price for one threshold does not depend on the price for another, and a difference between two prices is not by itself an opportunity to trade.
Historical Context
Wikipedia reports that the primary elections for Tennessee's 2026 U.S. House races took place on August 6, 2026, and that the general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [3]. This is background about the election calendar. It does not establish the current status of the race or confirm any result.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how decisive a Democratic win in Tennessee's 9th District would be, rather than only whether Democrats win. Traders can therefore express a view on the size of the margin at several thresholds [1]. Because the rules define margin using the runner-up's vote share, the contract depends on the final certified or reported vote percentages for the two leading candidates in that race [1]. Readers should check the contract rules for the exact definition before interpreting any threshold, since the calculation differs from a simple win or loss question [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
For a Democratic win, the margin is the Democratic vote percentage minus the percentage for the candidate or party finishing immediately behind it. No rounding is applied [1].
What happens if the Democratic candidate loses?
The margin is negative. It is measured against the candidate or party that finishes first, and it is compared with the threshold ranges in the same way [1].
Does a tie count as a Democratic win?
A tie for first place produces a margin of zero under the rules [1].
What if the Democrats are the only candidate in the race?
The margin is set at 100 percentage points, or at the total number of votes cast when the measure is raw votes [1].
When does the contract close?
The contract closes and expires early if certified election results are published. The provider excerpt does not supply a listed end time [1]. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [3].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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