Ararat-Armenia vs Alkmaar: Spread
K 0 contracts
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Ararat-Armenia vs Alkmaar: Spread
K 0 contracts
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4
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 0 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
4
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
ARA vs AZA (Oct 22) If Alkmaar wins by more than X goals in the Ararat-Armenia vs Alkmaar professional Europa League soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 22, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, does not include extra time or penalties, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after a winner is declared.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T21:00:06.041Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers four Kalshi contracts tied to the Ararat-Armenia vs Alkmaar Europa League match, which the source describes as "originally scheduled for Oct 22, 2026" [1]. Each contract asks whether one side wins by more than a stated number of goals. The rules say the market resolves to Yes if the margin is greater than X "after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, does not include extra time or penalties" [1]. A reader should therefore check the margin threshold and the exact time window before comparing any two contracts.
The contracts also list an end date of October 24, 2026, at 16:45 UTC [1]. The same source says the "Listed end time: not supplied" [1], and the rules state that the market "will close and expire after a winner is declared" [1]. The listed date is a platform field, not confirmation of when the match was played or when the contract will settle.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T21:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-17T01:38:22Z [1]. These are historical records from that observation window, not live quotes for today. The Yes prices were 0.39 for Alkmaar by more than 1.5 goals, 0.20 for Alkmaar by more than 2.5 goals, 0.05 for Ararat-Armenia by more than 1.5 goals, and 0.045 for Ararat-Armenia by more than 2.5 goals [1].
Read these as a ranking of thresholds within one event, not as probabilities. The prices are snapshot values and may not be executable at the same level. The saved data does not include volume or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants agree. Because all four contracts come from the same Kalshi event, the sample supports comparing thresholds within that event. It does not support averaging outcomes or treating differences as an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The sample is marked as complete for these four saved markets, with "partialSample" set to false [1]. However, the sample warning states that "This does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The sample does not include a draw, a result by a different margin, or any other outcome, so no conclusion can be drawn about those unlisted outcomes.
The evidence also does not explain why prices were where they were, report match news, or indicate whether any result has occurred. The rules state that extra time and penalties are excluded [1], so readers should not assume that a contract's wording matches another platform's wording. This snapshot is limited to the October 16, 2026 observation and should be checked against current provider data before any decision.
References
- Kalshi: Ararat-Armenia vs Alkmaar: Spread. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T21:00:06.041Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCOverview
This article covers a Kalshi spread contract on the Europa League match between Ararat-Armenia and Alkmaar, originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 [1]. Kalshi's listing describes the contract as a margin question. It asks whether Alkmaar wins by more than a stated number of goals, or whether Ararat-Armenia does, in the match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties are not counted [1]. The listing states that the market resolves to Yes if the stated margin condition is met under those rules, and that the market closes and expires after a winner is declared [1]. Kalshi also states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, or endorsed by the Governing League, and that trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners [1]. The saved event includes four markets, all of which are included in the sample. They cover Alkmaar winning by more than 1.5 goals, Alkmaar winning by more than 2.5 goals, Ararat-Armenia winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Ararat-Armenia winning by more than 2.5 goals [1]. Each market is a separate yes or no contract, so the four prices should be read individually rather than added together or compared as a ranking. The listed contract end date is October 24, 2026 at 16:45 UTC. That date is a contract closing date from the market data, not an announced match date. The match was originally scheduled for October 22, 2026, according to the contract rules [1]. The price snapshot was observed at 21:00 UTC on October 16, 2026 and retrieved shortly after. It reflects that moment only and is not a current quote.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the goal margin in one scheduled match, under the specific rules stated by the platform. A Yes result depends on whether the stated margin is reached after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalties excluded [1]. Because the rules define the outcome window and the margin threshold, a reader needs both to interpret any contract. The platform's listing also notes that it is independent of the governing body, which is relevant when reading event names and branding [1]. The prices in the snapshot are one observed set of values for these four margin contracts. They are not executable quotes and should not be treated as verified probabilities [1]. Trading volume and the number of participants are not part of this record, so the snapshot says nothing about how liquid the market was or how many people traded it.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What event does this contract cover?
It covers the Ararat-Armenia vs Alkmaar Europa League soccer game, which the contract rules say was originally scheduled for October 22, 2026 [1].
What does a Yes result require?
For the Alkmaar contracts, a Yes result requires Alkmaar to win by more than the stated number of goals. The rules measure the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time and do not count extra time or penalties [1]. The Ararat-Armenia contracts apply the same logic to the other team [1].
Are extra time and penalties counted?
No. The contract rules state that extra time and penalties are not included in the measurement [1].
What does the contract end date mean?
The market data lists October 24, 2026 at 16:45 UTC as the end date. The contract rules say the market closes and expires after a winner is declared [1]. That date is a contract date, not an announced match date.
Do the prices show the chance of each outcome?
The prices are snapshots from a single observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as the chance that any outcome will occur [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
