BNB Up or Down - October 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event is "BNB Up or Down - October 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET" from Polymarket [1]. The rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream named in the rules, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
Two details matter when comparing this contract with others. The title uses Eastern Time, while the listed end time is in UTC, "2026-10-20T04:45:00.000Z" [1]. Readers should convert the times themselves before comparing windows. Also, a similar BNB contract on another platform could use a different price feed, averaging method, or window, so its prices would not describe the same event.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z, and the application retrieved the source at 2026-10-19T06:30:02.113Z [1]. The status was recorded as active [1]. These are historical capture times, not a live feed, and the prices below describe only that observation.
The saved prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. Read as snapshot prices, they show the market leaning very slightly toward Up at that moment. The gap is small, and the figures are not executable quotes, so they should not be treated as verified probabilities or as a trading signal.
The sample is complete for this event. The coverage record lists one market, with one included and no partial sample [1]. The saved event includes only this single contract, so no outcome is omitted. The sample warning still notes that the providers may not list every possible real-world outcome [1].
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stand where they do, and it contains no information about recent news, participation levels, or trading activity. It also does not show what BNB's price will be during the window. Because the snapshot predates the listed end time, the final result cannot be determined from this evidence.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-duration crypto contract on Polymarket asking whether BNB will be up or down over a five-minute window. The title, BNB Up or Down - October 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET, identifies the window [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over that window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of the window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream, not general market prices. The provider states that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the BNB/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. Because the outcome depends on a specific averaged data stream, a move on one exchange does not by itself determine how the contract resolves. At the observation time recorded for this snapshot, 2026-10-19 06:00 UTC, the provider listed the market as active, with a listed end time of 2026-10-20 04:45 UTC [1]. That listed end time is the contract's closing time under the provider's rules. It is not a record of when the market was resolved, and this description does not report a resolution outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of BNB's price in USD as reflected in a specific Chainlink TWAP data stream over a fixed five-minute window [1]. It compares the average price across the window with the price at the window's start, so the question is about the averaged level relative to the starting point rather than the closing price alone [1]. Traders following the contract therefore need to understand both the data stream named in the rules and the timing of the window. The contract's rules also make clear that it does not track other BNB price sources [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves Up if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which price source does the contract use?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The provider states that the market is about that Chainlink data stream and not any other sources or spot markets [1].
What time window does the contract cover?
The title specifies October 20, 12:40AM to 12:45AM ET [1]. The provider's listed end time is 2026-10-20 04:45 UTC [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.