Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event asks how the 2026 MD-04 House election margin will fall into a bracket. The source defines margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Party nominees represent "Democrat" and "Republican," and "Independent candidates will not represent options for either party" [1].

The brackets are not interchangeable. The source says that "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1]. Some contracts ask about a specific bracket, such as a 80%-85% Democratic margin, while another asks whether the Republican Party candidate wins outright [1]. These are different questions, so their prices should not be compared as if they were one field.

Resolution depends on official certification. The source says the market "will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official" [1]. It also states that if results are not known definitively by "June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other"" [1]. The listed end time in the snapshot is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's listed close, not a confirmed result date.

Reading the snapshot

The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T22:00:42.439Z [1]. The provider's displayed prices describe that moment only. They are not live quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities.

In the saved sample, the Democratic margin contract for 80%-85% shows a Yes price of 0.29, the 75%-80% contract shows 0.185, and the 65%-70% contract shows 0.131 [1]. Other observed Yes prices are lower, including 0.0525 for a margin of 90% or more and 0.0005 for the 50%-60% bracket [1]. The 0%-50% bracket shows 0.0025 [1]. The Republican winner contract shows a Yes price of 0.0005 [1].

The sample includes 10 markets, all of them saved from this one event, with no partial sample flag [1]. The selection rule orders markets by Yes price, so the list is ranked within this event only. Volume is not included in this interpretation, and it does not indicate liquidity or the number of traders.

What remains uncertain

The source does not explain why any price moved, and it does not report how many traders hold each view. It also does not establish that every possible real-world margin bracket appears here. The source notes that the saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Prices for omitted outcomes are therefore unknown, not lower.

Candidate names may change before election day. The source says that if a nominee is replaced, "the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee" [1]. Recounts can also extend the market, which "will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official" [1].

References

1. Polymarket: MD-04 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.