Spain General Election: Teruel Winner
PM $4.4K
1
5
Spain General Election: Teruel Winner
PM $4.4K
1
5
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is PP at 78.5%.
Polymarket
- PP78.5%
- PSOE21%
- Broad Front (FA)3%
- Podemos2.6%
- Vox0.9%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $4.4K
Reported volume · provider units
5
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituency of Teruel as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) in the constituency of Teruel, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists in the constituency of Teruel, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T09:00:05.886Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event asks which party wins the most seats in the constituency of Teruel in Spain's general election [1]. The rules rank parties by the seats won by their electoral lists in Teruel. Ties are broken first by total valid votes and then by alphabetical order of party names [1].
The lists are grouped in specific ways. PSOE includes Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya lists in Catalonia, and Podemos counts only lists it presents on its own [1]. The rules also state that "Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered" [1].
The excerpt says the election is "scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026" [1]. It also says the market resolves to "Other" if results are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1]. The provider's listed end time is 2026-11-30T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is a listed close time, not the resolution deadline, so the two should not be treated as the same date.
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-25T09:00:05.886Z and retrieved at 2026-10-25T09:36:51.583Z [1]. They describe that moment only. They are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
At observation, the Yes price for PP was 0.845, PSOE 0.115, Broad Front 0.0495, Podemos 0.039, and Vox 0.0055 [1]. Each is a separate binary contract with its own wording, so the figures should not be combined into a single ranking or average. The Podemos and PSOE contracts, for example, use different list-attribution rules.
The sample covers all five saved markets for this event, and the coverage record marks it as not partial [1]. The sample warning adds that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. No "Other" market appears in the saved data, so its price is unknown. Nothing in the evidence shows that an omitted outcome has a lower price.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do. It contains no news, trader counts, or information about past forecasting accuracy. The election has not produced results in the supplied material, so all contracts remain open. Only one platform is represented, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.
References
- Polymarket: Spain General Election: Teruel Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T09:00:05.886Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a prediction market tied to the Spanish general election scheduled for November 29, 2026 [1]. The event asks which party will win the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies in the constituency of Teruel. The legislative elections are set to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies [1]. The contract resolves to the party whose electoral lists win the most seats in Teruel. Seats are attributed by electoral list as reported in the official results, regardless of individual candidates' party membership [1]. The rules group several lists under named parties. PSOE includes Socialist lists and the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya lists in Catalonia. PP includes People's Party lists and the joint UPN-PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA) covers its lists across several regions. ERC covers Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including joint ERC-Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos counts only lists it presents on its own. CCa covers Canarian Coalition lists, including joint lists in the Canary Islands [1]. Any other list is attributed to the party or coalition named in the official proclamation of candidacies [1]. If two or more parties tie on seats, the tie is broken by total valid votes for their lists in Teruel, with the higher total ranking higher. Remaining ties are broken by alphabetical order of party names [1]. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, and later changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership are not considered [1]. The market states that it will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, the Spanish Ministry of the Interior's reported results will govern [1]. The listed end time is November 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, and if the election results are not definitively known by then, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The end date in the market data is a closing date set by the contract rules, not an announced result date.
Historical Context
Spain's previous general election was held on 23 July 2023 to elect the members of the 15th Cortes Generales. All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies and 208 of 266 Senate seats were up for election. It was the first time since 1839 that a Spanish general election was held in July [2]. The sources supplied for this entry do not describe Teruel's results in that election or in any other year. A separate Wikipedia list of constituency results for the 1923 Spanish general election is also in the evidence, but the supplied material does not describe its contents beyond that it is a list of constituency results [3].
Why It Matters
The contract measures which party's electoral lists win the most seats in one constituency, Teruel, in a national legislative election [1]. Because it concerns a single constituency and a set of grouped list attributions, a result depends on how seats are allocated across lists rather than on national totals. The rules also specify how ties are broken and what happens if results are not definitively known, which affects how the contract settles [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What election does this contract cover?
It covers the Spanish legislative elections scheduled for November 29, 2026, which elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies [1].
Does the contract look at the national result?
No. It resolves based on the party that wins the greatest number of seats in the constituency of Teruel [1].
How are joint lists handled?
Seats are attributed by the electoral list on which they were won, as listed in the rules. Some joint lists are assigned to a named party, such as the joint ERC-Podem lists in Catalonia under ERC, while Podemos counts only lists it presents on its own [1].
What happens if parties tie on seats?
The tie is broken by total valid votes for the parties' lists in Teruel. If they remain tied, alphabetical order of the listed party names is used [1].
What resolves the market to Other?
The market resolves to Other if the election results are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1].
Which source is used if reporting is ambiguous?
If the outcome is ambiguous, the contract resolves based on the results reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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