On this page (6 sections)
Content reviewed: 2026-10-13. Examples are hypothetical.
A prediction market price is the amount paid for a defined outcome, not a promise about what will happen. For a binary contract that pays $1 if correct and $0 otherwise, 60 cents corresponds to a 60% break-even probability before fees. Polymarket documents this price-to-probability interpretation; its displayed price can be a midpoint or a last trade rather than an executable offer.[1]
Separate price, probability and profit
Suppose you buy 100 Yes contracts at $0.60 each. This is a hypothetical example with no fees:
| Result | Settlement received | Initial cost | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes wins | $100 | $60 | $40 profit |
| No wins | $0 | $60 | $60 loss |
The $100 payment includes recovery of the $60 spent. It is not $100 of profit. Under these assumptions, expected profit per contract is p - c, where p is your estimated probability and c is its dollar cost. At a 65% estimate and a 60-cent cost, expected profit is five cents per contract. That average over hypothetical repeated opportunities does not predict the result of this individual event.
Read the tradable quote
The bid-ask spread separates what buyers offer from what sellers request. A page showing 60% can have a 58-cent bid and a 62-cent ask. A buyer crossing that spread starts at 62 cents, so the fee-free break-even rate is 62%, not 60%. Larger orders can consume several price levels.[1]
Write down the outcome, quote side, available quantity and observation time before comparing prices. PredictPedia displays saved market observations; open the provider's order preview for the price and fees available now.
Add costs before estimating an edge
If the entry fee averages one cent per contract, a 60-cent purchase costs 61 cents. With a $1 payout and no other charges, the break-even probability becomes 61%. Selling before settlement introduces a different exit price and potentially another fee. Use the EV calculator for a worked estimate and the probability converter for odds formats.
Check what the dollar depends on
The full resolution criteria determine the outcome. They can specify a particular publication, deadline or exception; the market title is only a summary.[2] Two similarly named markets can therefore have different fair prices. Read the rules before treating the cheaper contract as a bargain.
A useful trade note records your probability estimate and its evidence separately from the market price. Revisit the estimate when the evidence changes, rather than treating a move in the displayed price as proof that your original forecast was correct.
Try the calculation
Use the odds converter to check the same scenario in another format. Its starting American odds of -150 imply 60%, equivalent to decimal odds of about 1.6667. Switching formats preserves that probability.
References
- Polymarket Documentation. Prices & Orderbook. Accessed October 13, 2026.
- Polymarket Documentation. Resolution. Accessed October 13, 2026.