On this page (5 sections)
Content reviewed: 2026-10-13. Examples are hypothetical.
An exit decision compares what your position is worth now with what you can receive by selling it. The original entry price helps measure profit and tax records, but it does not determine the future payout of a contract you still own.
Compare selling with holding
For a $1/$0 contract, your current estimated settlement value is p dollars per contract before future charges. Compare that with the executable selling price after exit fees. In a hypothetical example, your updated probability is 55% and the available bid is 70 cents with a one-cent sale fee. Selling would realize 69 cents, above your estimated 55-cent settlement value.
If the available bid is 45 cents, the expected-value comparison changes. Holding may have higher estimated value, but a need for cash or an exposure limit can still justify reducing the position. The calculation is a decision aid, not a command to hold through risks you cannot bear.
Use the bid, not the chart mark
Displayed prices can be midpoints or previous trades; the current book determines the quantity that can be sold.[1] Suppose 20 contracts can sell at 70 cents and 80 at 65 cents. Selling 100 immediately produces $66 before fees, not $70. Review the order preview before treating a portfolio mark as cash.
Set conditions before emotions dominate
Write an exit plan when entering:
| Condition | Possible response |
|---|---|
| Evidence contradicts the forecast | Re-estimate the probability before adding exposure |
| Contract rules differ from your thesis | Reconsider ownership of that specific contract |
| Price exceeds your estimated value | Compare sale proceeds with holding value |
| Cash is needed before settlement | Reduce exposure while a buyer is available |
| Position breaches your portfolio limit | Trim to the predefined limit |
These are planning examples, not universal trading rules. A fixed stop level can be difficult to execute in a thin book, particularly when a news event moves many quotes at once.
Partial exits and settlement
Selling part of a position reduces future exposure; it does not make the remaining contracts economically free. If 50 contracts remain, their future payout still matters even if earlier sales recovered the original cost.
Check the resolution rules before holding to completion. Polymarket and Kalshi publish their own determination processes.[2][3] The event's apparent conclusion, the trading close and the time cash becomes withdrawable can differ. Cancel residual orders and reconcile fills when closing a position so an old order does not recreate it.
References
- Polymarket Documentation. Prices & Orderbook. Accessed October 13, 2026.
- Polymarket Documentation. Resolution. Accessed October 13, 2026.
- Kalshi Help Center. Market Rules. March 17, 2026; accessed October 13, 2026.