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Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028?

Yes 44.5%

Vol0 contracts

SnapshotOct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC

Yes 44.5%

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Event

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Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028?

Part of: When will AI biosecurity safeguards become U.S. law?

YesYes Price

44.5¢

VolTotal Volume

0 contracts

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Ends

Jan 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC

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Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028?

Yes

44.5¢

Vol

0 contracts

Outcomes

Trade

Yes44.5¢

No55.5¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 44.5%. Snapshot Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care become U.S. law before Jan 1, 2028? · Yes

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Rules and settlement

Listed close: Jan 7, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

If federal legislation imposing an AI catastrophic-risk duty of care has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying federal law must impose an enforceable standard requiring AI developers or deployers to take reasonable care, or equivalent precautions, to prevent or mitigate catastrophic harm from their models or systems. This means large-scale harm such as mass casualties, major disruption of critical infrastructure, or comparably severe economic or environmental damage; the law need not use the exact phrase "duty of care". Requiring a framework, audit, report, or shutdown control alone is insufficient. A framework qualifies only when the law makes the adequacy of the developer's precautions against catastrophic harm an enforceable obligation. Government enforcement or civil liability may enforce the duty. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the catastrophic-risk duty-of-care proposal being negotiated by Senators John Thune, Ted Cruz, and Amy Klobuchar. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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Resolution Info