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Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2029?

Yes 14.0%

Vol71.08 contracts

SnapshotOct 19, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

Yes 14.0%

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Event

MarketKALSHIactive

MarketKALSHIactivePolitics

Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2029?

Part of: Will China unban Bitcoin?

YesYes Price

14.0¢

VolTotal Volume

71.08 contracts

Outcomes

Ends

Jan 8, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC

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Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2029?

Yes

14.0¢

Vol

71.08 contracts

Outcomes

Trade

Yes14.0¢

No86.0¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 14.0%. Snapshot Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2029? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Jan 8, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event described in the Payout Criterion occurs.

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Resolution Info