Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.
If Esteban Ocon has the largest positive differential between their starting grid position and their finishing position in the main race originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at the 2026 United States Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Position Differential:
Differential = official starting grid position − official final classified position.
Starting Grid:
Uses the official FIA starting grid, including any grid penalties applied before the start.
If a driver starts from the pit lane, their starting position is one lower than the last regularly gridded driver, unless the FIA publishes a specific numeric grid position for them.
If the race is red-flagged and restarted, the original starting grid is used.
Final Position:
Uses the official FIA classification, including post-race time penalties and disqualifications published before expiration. Later changes or appeals are not counted.
If a driver retires but FIA still assigns them a classified finishing position, that position is used.
Eligibility:
Only drivers with both an official starting grid position and an official numeric classified finishing position are eligible to resolve Yes and are included in the comparison.
A driver who does not participate, does not start (DNS), or has no numeric classified position (e.g., an unclassified DNF or a DSQ) resolves No and is excluded from the comparison.
Ties / Dead Heats:
If multiple drivers tie for the greatest signed differential, Yes pays $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent) and No pays $1 minus the Yes payout, where N is the number of tied drivers.
Official FIA ties in grid or finishing position keep the tied number for each driver, and the next position skips ahead (e.g., a tie at P2 gives 1, 2, 2, 4).
Stopped, Postponed, or Cancelled Races:
If the race is red-flagged and not resumed within 48 hours, the classification at the time of stoppage is used, provided the leader completed at least 2 racing laps (laps not entirely under Safety Car or VSC). Otherwise, all markets settle to a fair price.
If the race is rescheduled within 48 hours of its original start at the same circuit, the market remains open and resolves based on the rescheduled race.
If the race is moved to a different circuit, rescheduled more than 48 hours later, or cancelled, all markets settle to a fair price. If no official grid or classification is available by expiration, all markets resolve to No.
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