Listed close: Feb 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.
If the number of non-incumbent candidates endorsed by Elon Musk after Issuance who are elected to federal office in elections held before Nov 4, 2026 is at least 3, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market counts the non-incumbent candidates who receive explicit public endorsements from Elon Musk after Issuance (Jul 14, 2026) and before Nov 4, 2026 and who are subsequently elected to federal office in the United States in elections occurring after Issuance (Jul 14, 2026) and before Nov 4, 2026. Special elections count if they occur before Nov 4, 2026.
"Endorsed by Elon Musk" means an explicit statement of support posted by Elon Musk that unambiguously states he endorses, supports, or backs the specific candidate for the specific federal office. Retweets, likes, replies, or ambiguous statements do NOT constitute endorsements.
Making any monetary contribution (including in-kind contributions) to a candidate's campaign, political action committee, or affiliated organization, as reported by any Source Agency, is also considered an endorsement.
Participating in any of the following campaign activities for a candidate is considered an endorsement:
Speaking at a campaign rally, fundraiser, or official campaign event
Appearing in campaign advertisements or promotional materials
Serving in an official campaign role (e.g., campaign chair, advisor, surrogate)
Hosting or co-hosting a fundraising event
"Non-incumbent" means a candidate who is not currently serving in the specific federal office they are seeking at the time of the election. A member of the House running for Senate is considered a non-incumbent for the Senate race.
"Federal office" means only: United States Senator, United States Representative, President of the United States, or Vice President of the United States.
"Elected" means the candidate has been officially certified as the winner by the relevant state election authority.
If Musk endorses a candidate after they have already been elected, this does not count toward the total. If Musk withdraws an endorsement before the election occurs, and explicitly states he is withdrawing support, the candidate no longer counts as endorsed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
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