Global and European temperatures
Global and European temperatures European Environment Agency (EEA)
If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
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If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
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This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.
Last updated: Nov 22, 2025 14:07
This market concerns Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?. Current market sentiment suggests Before 2050 is more likely with a 77.0% probability.
Really interesting market dynamics here. The recent polling data suggests a shift in sentiment that could significantly impact these odds.
Agreed! I noticed the same trend. Do you have sources for that polling data?
The liquidity on this market is surprisingly high. Good for getting fills without slippage.
Anyone else think the YES side is undervalued right now? The fundamentals seem strong.
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