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0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31?

Yes12%+0.5%

Vol$3.19K

Outcomes2

12%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31?

Part of: 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?

NoNo Price

89¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$3.19K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Jan 1, 2027

in 3 months

Trade on Polymarket

0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31?

No

89¢

|

Vol

$3.19K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes11.5¢

No88.5¢

Price History

0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

81 Days Left

January 01, 2027 • 4:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?

0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

January 01, 2027

4:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.