Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for winter wheat acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 20, 2026.
Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national winter wheat acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.
If no value for the week of October 20, 2026 is published by October 29, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for winter wheat acreage with an effective date on or before October 20, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1.
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