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Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?

Yes 27.5%

Vol$16.2K

SnapshotOct 23, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

Yes 27.5%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

Event

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactivePolitics

Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?

Part of: Another NATO article 4 by...?

YesYes Price

27.5¢

VolTotal Volume

$16.2K

Outcomes

Ends

Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC

Trade on Polymarket

Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?

Yes

27.5¢

Vol

$16.2K

Outcomes

Trade

Yes27.5¢

No72.5¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 27.5%. Snapshot Oct 23, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked. For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If a member state only expresses intent to or is considering invoking Article 4, that alone does not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO; authoritative statements from the requesting member government may also be used.

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Resolution Info