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Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?

Yes33%-0.5%

Vol$51.44K

Outcomes2

33%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?

Part of: Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

NoNo Price

68¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$51.44K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Jan 1, 2027

in 3 months

Trade on Polymarket

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?

No

68¢

|

Vol

$51.44K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes32.5¢

No67.5¢

Price History

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

80 Days Left

January 01, 2027 • 4:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

January 01, 2027

4:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eritrean military forces enter Ethiopia by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Ethiopian territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Eritrean military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Ethiopia for less than 48 hours will not qualify. Mere presence of Eritrean military forces within Ethiopia will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Ethiopia. Only the entry of Eritrean military forces into the territory of Ethiopia must occur by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Where Eritrean military forces enter the territory of Ethiopia by the listed date, but on the listed date, at 11:59 PM ET, control has not yet been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will remain open for 7 additional full calendar days (ET) to allow for confirmation. If, at the end of the seventh calendar day, no consensus of credible reporting indicates that the operation has established or did establish control over part of Ethiopia, this market will resolve to "No." No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by a consensus of credible reporting. Hybrid or "grey zone" operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be acting under the direct control of the Eritrean state and establish de facto control over territory. For purposes of this market, Ethiopia will be considered to be territory claimed by Ethiopia and not controlled by another state at the time of market creation. Territory claimed by Ethiopia but held by Eritrea or another state will not be relevant for purposes of this market. Search and rescue or hostage rescue operations, operations intended solely to capture specific individuals, operations solely intended to evacuate personnel or to extract or destroy equipment or infrastructure, and intelligence, reconnaissance, or surveillance operations, whether overt or covert, will not qualify unless clearly demonstrated by a consensus of credible reporting to have satisfied this market’s criteria for a “Yes” resolution. Operations conducted with the consent or at the invitation of the government of Ethiopia and strikes by air, missile, drone, or naval forces unaccompanied by ground forces will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.