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Plague case in US by December 31?

Yes7%

Vol$12.62K

Outcomes2

7%

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MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Plague case in US by December 31?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Plague case in US by December 31?

Part of: Plague case in US by December 31?

NoNo Price

93¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$12.62K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Jan 1, 2027

in 3 months

Trade on Polymarket

Plague case in US by December 31?

Plague case in US by December 31?

No

93¢

|

Vol

$12.62K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes7.0¢

No93.0¢

Price History

Plague case in US by December 31?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

81 Days Left

January 01, 2027 • 4:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Plague case in US by December 31?

Plague case in US by December 31?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

January 01, 2027

4:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed case of pneumonic plague in a human is reported in the United States at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. Publication of the underlying laboratory results is not required. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. A case reported only as "plague" with no form specified, and a case described only as suspected or probable, do not qualify. For the purposes of this market, the United States includes the 50 states and the District of Columbia. A case qualifies if the patient is diagnosed in the United States, regardless of where the infection was acquired. Cases diagnosed outside the United States, including in U.S. citizens abroad, do not qualify. The case does not need to be epidemiologically linked to the Irkutsk outbreak or any other specific outbreak to qualify. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation, not the date of exposure, symptom onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), U.S. state or local public health authorities, and the WHO; however a consensus of credible sources will also suffice.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.