PPOLYMARKET

Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Yes1%+0.1%

Vol$2.50K

Outcomes2

1%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

NoNo Price

99¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$2.50K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Jan 1, 2027

in 3 months

Trade on Polymarket

Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

No

99¢

|

Vol

$2.50K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes0.7¢

No99.3¢

Price History

Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

84 Days Left

January 01, 2027 • 4:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

January 01, 2027

4:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified, a quantum computer has been publicly demonstrated to derive a valid private key corresponding to an existing Bitcoin address using a quantum algorithm, such that the derived key is sufficient to sign a valid transaction on the Bitcoin mainnet. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, the demonstration must satisfy all of the following: The private key must be derived from a real Bitcoin address whose corresponding public key has been revealed on the Bitcoin blockchain (for example, via a prior transaction). The address must use standard Bitcoin cryptography with no artificial weakening or modification. The target address must be reasonably believed not to be controlled by the demonstrator. This may be established through credible reporting, prior attribution (such as a known exchange or historical address), or broad consensus among experts. The derivation must rely on a quantum computing method that provides a computational advantage for solving the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem underlying Bitcoin’s ECDSA (e.g., Shor’s algorithm or a comparable quantum algorithm). Purely classical methods, side-channel attacks, or approaches where quantum computation does not play a material role in deriving the key do not qualify. The derived private key must be shown to be valid by either signing and broadcasting a valid transaction from the target address on the Bitcoin mainnet, or by independent reproduction and confirmation by multiple credible third parties. The result must be widely accepted by the cryptographic research community as valid. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.