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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Yes 17.5%

Vol$2.92M

SnapshotOct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

Yes 17.5%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

Event

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactivePolitics

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

YesYes Price

17.5¢

VolTotal Volume

$2.92M

Outcomes

Ends

Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC

Trade on Polymarket

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Yes

17.5¢

Vol

$2.92M

Outcomes

Trade

Yes17.5¢

No82.5¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 17.5%. Snapshot Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Resolution Info