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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Yes27%-8.0%

Vol$2.51M

Outcomes2

27%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

NoNo Price

74¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$2.51M

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Jan 1, 2027

in 4 months

Trade on Polymarket

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

No

74¢

|

Vol

$2.51M

|

Outcomes

2

Yes26.5¢

No73.5¢

Price History

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

117 Days Left

January 01, 2027 • 4:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

January 01, 2027

4:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.