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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Yes10%

Vol$412.30K

Outcomes2

10%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

NoNo Price

91¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$412.30K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Oct 31, 2026

in about 2 months

Trade on Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

No

91¢

|

Vol

$412.30K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes9.5¢

No90.5¢

Price History

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

55 Days Left

October 31, 2026 • 12:00 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

October 31, 2026

12:00 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for October 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.