Listed close: Oct 26, 2026, 6:59 AM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a tornado is on the ground anywhere in California at any time between October 21, 2026, 12:00 AM PT and October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any portion of a tornado's ground path within California qualifies, including a tornado that begins outside the state.
A tornado qualifies if it is listed as a tornado report in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Storm Reports or any National Weather Service (NWS) office confirms it in a damage survey or Public Information Statement. The time the tornado occurred governs, not the date of the SPC report page or the time it was reported. SPC report times are in UTC and will be converted to PT. A report qualifies only if its reported location, coordinates, or surveyed path is on land within California. Funnel clouds that do not touch down and waterspouts that stay offshore do not qualify.
Where an NWS damage survey or Public Information Statement and the SPC Storm Reports disagree about whether an event was a tornado, the SPC Storm Reports determination governs. This market may resolve “Yes” before October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM PT only on SPC Storm Report, NWS confirmation in a damage survey or Public Information Statement.
Only information published by October 28, 2026, 11:59 PM PT will be considered, and the SPC Storm Reports will be read as they stand at that time. A report that the NWS or SPC removes, or determines was not a tornado, by that time does not qualify.
The primary resolution source is the SPC Storm Reports at https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/, with NWS damage surveys and Public Information Statements as confirming sources. Public Information Statements are available on each NWS office's product page, for example https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOX&issuedby=LOX&product=PNS for the Los Angeles office. Statements from other NWS offices can be found at https://forecast.weather.gov/product_sites.php?site=NWS&product=PNS.
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