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U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30, 2027?

Yes 46.5%

Vol$0

SnapshotOct 27, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

Yes 46.5%

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Event

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactivePolitics

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30, 2027?

Part of: U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

YesYes Price

46.5¢

VolTotal Volume

Outcomes

Ends

Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC

Trade on Polymarket

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30, 2027?

Yes

46.5¢

Vol

Outcomes

Trade

Yes46.5¢

No53.5¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 46.5%. Snapshot Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30, 2027? · Yes

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Rules and settlement

Listed close: Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the Trump administration and the Government of Ukraine, which creates a binding obligation for the United States to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the United States must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations. Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked. Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify. Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024, US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees. A qualifying agreement must be jointly announced and finalized, and take the form of a treaty, executive agreement, memorandum of understanding, joint declaration, or equivalent written instrument. Announcements that are statements of intent, contingent, exploratory, or otherwise not indicative of a formalized policy will not count. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Resolution Info