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Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?

Yes 22.0%

Vol$98

SnapshotOct 23, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

Yes 22.0%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

Event

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactivePolitics

Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?

Part of: How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26?

YesYes Price

22.0¢

VolTotal Volume

$98

Outcomes

Ends

Nov 2, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC

Trade on Polymarket

Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1?

Yes

22.0¢

Vol

$98

Outcomes

Trade

Yes22.0¢

No78.0¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 22.0%. Snapshot Oct 23, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will 230 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 26-November 1? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Nov 2, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 26, 2026, through November 1, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

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Resolution Info