PPOLYMARKET

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Yes11%

Vol$79.65K

Outcomes2

11%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

NoNo Price

90¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$79.65K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Dec 31, 2026

in 4 months

Trade on Polymarket

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

No

90¢

|

Vol

$79.65K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes10.5¢

No89.5¢

Price History

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

128 Days Left

December 31, 2026 • 12:00 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

December 31, 2026

12:00 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks first, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names will be used as a final tiebreaker. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model occupies the top position in this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.