Listed close: Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Google "Carbon" model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) holds a rank within the specified top ranks when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model listed under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon, will qualify only if it is confirmed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon". Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None), in the "Models" view, and with no other filters applied will be used to resolve this market. A model debuts within the specified top ranks if its displayed rank at the check time is equal to or better than the specified rank (for example, a displayed rank of 4 is within the top 5 and the top 10). This market will resolve solely based on the specified rank in the Rank column of the leaderboard, regardless of the model's score, rank spread or confidence intervals, ranks shown under other adjustments, filters, or categories, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. A model is considered to first appear on the leaderboard on the first calendar date (ET) on which it is displayed with a rank and without the "AutoEval" label; only such ranks will be considered. An entry listed under a preliminary, code, or placeholder name is considered newly added on the first date it is displayed under a name satisfying the model specification clause above; a renamed entry's first appearance under a qualifying name counts as its addition to the leaderboard. Each separately listed entry, including reasoning or thinking-level variants of the same model, is a distinct model for the purposes of this market, and the first qualifying entry added governs resolution.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-ranking model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a qualifying model is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, that appearance will not qualify; if the model is subsequently displayed again, the date on which it reappears will be treated as a new first appearance.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Arena.AI Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If the leaderboard's URL, tab names, or control labels change, the equivalent default Text Overall view with style control disabled and no filters applied on arena.ai constitutes the same resolution source; such changes do not make the source unavailable. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model's rank becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model is added to the leaderboard by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
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