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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?

Yes 3.1%

Vol$155

SnapshotOct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

Yes 3.1%

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Event

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MarketPOLYMARKETactiveWorld

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?

Part of: Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Specific Margin of Victory

YesYes Price

3.1¢

VolTotal Volume

$155

Outcomes

Ends

Oct 26, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC

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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?

Yes

3.1¢

Vol

$155

Outcomes

Trade

Yes3.1¢

No96.9¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 3.1%. Snapshot Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Oct 26, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Resolution Info