PPOLYMARKET

Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?

Yes14%

Vol$266.08

Outcomes2

14%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?

NoNo Price

86¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$266.08

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Nov 7, 2026

in 4 months

Trade on Polymarket

Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?

Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?

No

86¢

|

Vol

$266.08

|

Outcomes

2

Yes14.0¢

No86.0¢

Price History

Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

119 Days Left

November 07, 2026 • 12:00 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

November 07, 2026

12:00 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.