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Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?

Yes11%

Vol$156.68K

Outcomes2

11%

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Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?

Part of: Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?

NoNo Price

90¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$156.68K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Jan 1, 2027

in 3 months

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Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?

No

90¢

|

Vol

$156.68K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes10.5¢

No89.5¢

Price History

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

80 Days Left

January 01, 2027 • 4:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

January 01, 2027

4:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, Russia formally announces either: (i) a new compulsory military mobilization under the existing September 2022 mobilization framework, or an expansion of the categories of citizen to which that framework applies; or (ii) the establishment or authorization of a new compulsory military mobilization outside the September 2022 mobilization framework. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying announcement must communicate such a mobilization as a new policy of the Russian State. A formal legal act (e.g., an executive decree) that establishes or authorizes a qualifying mobilization, or expands the categories of citizens subject to one, will qualify as an announcement. Routine military operations not framed as a new policy, or actions not evidenced by any formal act or announcement, will not qualify. Qualifying actions include, but are not limited to: announcing a new wave or phase of mobilization; announcing the expansion of the categories or ages of citizens subject to compulsory mobilization; announcing the authorization of compulsory mobilization call-ups of citizens not subject to compulsory mobilization prior to the authorization; or Mandating a specific number of new call-ups. The following will not qualify: ordinary conscription decrees; electronic summons or draft-register measures; increases to the authorized size of the Armed Forces; routine draft administration; contract-recruitment measures; or new financial recruitment incentives. Reserve training assemblies conducted within the statutory duration limits of Federal Law No. 53-FZ "On Military Duty and Military Service" (Article 54), and special assemblies limited to citizens who have voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve will not qualify. However, a reserve-related measure, whether established through a new legal act or under an existing legal framework, will qualify if it is formally announced by the Russian State or established by a formal legal act and satisfies any of the following criteria: authorizes or requires the deployment of compulsorily called-up reserve citizens to the zone of the "special military operation" or their assignment to combat formations; permits compulsory retention of called-up citizens beyond the statutory duration limits that would otherwise apply to those citizens; extends special-assembly-type compulsory service, or any comparable compulsory service obligation, to citizens of the inactive reserve (zapas) who have not voluntarily contracted into the mobilization human reserve; establishes any further new category of compulsory military service for reserve citizens The primary resolution sources will be official legal acts and official announcements published or issued by the Russian State.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.