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Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?

Yes2%-0.4%

Vol$225.51K

Outcomes2

2%

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MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?

Part of: Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?

NoNo Price

98¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$225.51K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Jan 1, 2027

in 3 months

Trade on Polymarket

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?

No

98¢

|

Vol

$225.51K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes1.6¢

No98.5¢

Price History

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

79 Days Left

January 01, 2027 • 4:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

January 01, 2027

4:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Donetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk. The boundaries of each municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within a municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this may still qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will not qualify, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. Similarly, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Control must be established through military conquest. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.