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Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?

Yes37%

Vol$35.38K

Outcomes2

37%

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Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?

Part of: Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?

NoNo Price

63¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$35.38K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Nov 1, 2026

in about 2 months

Trade on Polymarket

Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?

No

63¢

|

Vol

$35.38K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes37.0¢

No63.0¢

Price History

Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

56 Days Left

November 01, 2026 • 3:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?

Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

November 01, 2026

3:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.450545° N, 37.181493° E in Novyi Donbas, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location in Novyi Donbas: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas1.png Novyi Donbas Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas2.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fsRaQXJ6vikXNKYu9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.