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Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?

Yes84%+1.5%

Vol$3.00K

Outcomes2

84%

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MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?

Part of: Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again by...?

YesYes Price

84¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$3.00K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Dec 31, 2026

in 3 months

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Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?

Yes

84¢

|

Vol

$3.00K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes83.5¢

No16.5¢

Price History

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

80 Days Left

December 31, 2026 • 11:59 PM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again by...?

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again by...?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

December 31, 2026

11:59 PM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.