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Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on November 30?

Yes 2.9%

Vol$699.9

SnapshotNov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

Yes 2.9%

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Event

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactivePolitics

Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on November 30?

Part of: Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of November?

YesYes Price

2.9¢

VolTotal Volume

$699.9

Outcomes

Ends

Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC

Trade on Polymarket

Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on November 30?

Yes

2.9¢

Vol

$699.9

Outcomes

Trade

Yes2.9¢

No97.1¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 2.9%. Snapshot Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on November 30? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for November 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. This market will resolve based on the whole-number value published by the resolution source for the specified date. Any more granular or unrounded values will not be considered; if the value is presented with decimals in any format, it will be rounded to the nearest whole number, with .5 rounded up.

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Resolution Info