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Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Yes 7.0%

Vol$807.0K

SnapshotOct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

Yes 7.0%

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Event

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

MarketPOLYMARKETactivePolitics

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Part of: Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

YesYes Price

7.0¢

VolTotal Volume

$807.0K

Outcomes

Ends

Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC

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Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Yes

7.0¢

Vol

$807.0K

Outcomes

Trade

Yes7.0¢

No93.0¢

Outcome

Yes quoted price: 7.0%. Snapshot Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. History may have a different observation time.

Price History

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? · Yes

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Rules and settlement

Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC. Settlement follows the provider's contract terms and may occur later.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting. Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

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Resolution Info