Calculate the win rate you need to break even at a given market price.
The price you're paying for YES shares
Fee charged on winning trades
Break-even Win Rate
66.3%
You need to win more than 66.3% of the time to profit
Fee adds 1.3% to the break-even threshold
Implied Odds
65.0%
Market price
Decimal Odds
1.51x
Payout multiplier
Edge Needed
+1.3%
Due to fees
Per $100 Wagered
The break-even win rate is higher than the market price because of platform fees. You need to be right more often than the market implies to make money.
Example: At 65% price with 2% fee, break-even is ~66.3%. You need to be right 66.3% of the time, not 65%, to profit long-term.
Tip: Focus on markets where you believe your edge exceeds the fee-adjusted break-even rate.