Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election?

On Oct 4, 2026 If X wins 2026 Brazilian Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a parliamentary election, the winner is the party or formal pre-election coalition that wins the most seats in the specified chamber, even if they do not form the government. If there is a tie for the most seats, the winner is the party that enters government; if that doesn't resolve the tie, the