Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory

On Oct 25, 2026 If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above X then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the share of valid votes, excluding blank and null votes, received by Flávio Bolsonaro minus the share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Flávio Bolsonaro if Flávio Bolsonaro wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Flávio Bolsonaro loses. If Flávio Bolsonaro wins, the margin will be positi