Brazil presidential runoff: Lula margin of victory

On Oct 25, 2026 If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above X then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the share of valid votes, excluding blank and null votes, received by Lula da Silva minus the share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses. If Lula da Silva wins, the margin will be positive; if Lula da Sil