Minas Gerais: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory (runoff)

On Oct 25, 2026 If the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff in the state of Minas Gerais is at or above X then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the share of valid votes cast in the state of Minas Gerais, excluding blank and null votes, received by Flávio Bolsonaro minus the share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Flávio Bolsonaro if Flávio Bolsonaro wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Flávio Bolso