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Will China obtain an EUV machine?

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Will China obtain an EUV machine?

Will China obtain an EUV machine?
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2.1K contracts

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4

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Market snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed.

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4 markets tracked

Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2030?

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All Markets(4)
MarketOutcome price
Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2030?
Yes 68.5%
Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2029?
Yes 54.5%
Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2028?
Yes 32.0%
Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2027?
Yes 8.0%

Event Overview

Before Jan 1, 2030 If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet, EUV, lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A, explicitly states event claim occurred, is true, or has been verified, B, based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C, presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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Markets (4)

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KALSHITech
Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2030?

Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2030?

If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states event claim occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Yes outcome68.5%
Yes
Volume86.36 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 08, 2030
View Details
KALSHITech
Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2029?

Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2029?

If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states event claim occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Yes outcome54.5%
Yes
Volume849.39 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 08, 2029
View Details
KALSHITech
Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2028?

Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2028?

If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states event claim occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Yes outcome32.0%
Yes
Volume227.59 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 08, 2028
View Details
KALSHITech
Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2027?

Will China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility be confirmed before Jan 1, 2027?

If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states event claim occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Yes outcome8.0%
Yes
Volume889.24 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateJan 08, 2027
View Details

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